Publications | Lucas Orbolato Carvalho

Peer-reviewed and conference publications

Ordered by publication year, newest first. Within the same year, journal articles appear first, followed by conference papers; entries within each type are ordered alphabetically by title.

An optimized model-free reinforcement learning approach for tactical air traffic flow and capacity management under uncertainty

Transport Policy · 2026 · DOI 10.1016/j.tranpol.2026.104380

Data-driven framework for urban air mobility planning: Integrating socioeconomic and operational factors for optimal network design in São Paulo, Brazil

Case Studies on Transport Policy · 2026 · DOI 10.1016/j.cstp.2026.101848

From avoided emissions to potential credits: A simulation-based case study of helicopter-to-eVTOL substitution in São Paulo

Case Studies on Transport Policy · 2026 · DOI 10.1016/j.cstp.2026.101884

Literature-Informed Stochastic Scenario Analysis of Thermal-Runaway Risk During eVTOL Battery Fast Charging

IEEE Access · 2026 · DOI 10.1109/ACCESS.2026.3725575

Predicting Arrival Delays and Flight Time Deviations Under Uncertainty Using Bayesian Neural Networks

IEEE Access · 2026 · DOI 10.1109/ACCESS.2026.3709713

Probabilistic Modeling of Critical Ground Times in Aeromedical Organ Transport: A Brazilian Air Force Case Study

Sci · 2026 · DOI 10.3390/sci8070169

When Do Data-Driven Models Improve Runway-Configuration Forecasts? Multi-Horizon Operational Evidence from São Paulo/Guarulhos

Journal of Air Transport Management · accepted · 2026

Stochastic Strategic Demand-Capacity Balancing Using Model-Free Reinforcement Learning

45th Digital Avionics Systems Conference · 2026 · Student Research Competition finalist

A stochastic model-free reinforcement learning framework for optimizing runway capacity management under uncertainty

Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice · 2025 · DOI 10.1016/j.tra.2025.104620 · Code & reproducibility

Open Machine Learning Models for Actual Takeoff Weight Prediction

Journal of Open Aviation Science · 2025 · DOI 10.59490/joas.2025.7963

A Reinforcement Learning Approach for Optimizing the Runway Capacity Utilization Under Uncertainty

XX SITRAER - Air Transportation Symposium · 2023 · Joinville

Optimizing the runway capacity allocation under uncertain capacity constraints

LV Brazilian Symposium on Operations Research (SBPO) · 2023 · DOI 10.59254/sbpo-2023-174932

A multiple model machine learning approach for soil classification from cone penetration test data

Soils and Rocks · 2021 · DOI 10.28927/SR.2021.072121

Application of kernel k-means and kernel x-means clustering to obtain soil classes from cone penetration test data

Soils and Rocks · 2020 · DOI 10.28927/SR.434607

Soil Classification System from Cone Penetration Test Data Applying Distance-Based Machine Learning Algorithms

Soils and Rocks · 2019 · DOI 10.28927/SR.422167

Comparing Artificial Neural Networks with Support Vector Machines for Soil Classification

XL Ibero-Latin-American Congress on Computational Methods in Engineering (CILAMCE) · 2019 · Natal

Preprints and ongoing work

Preprints are listed separately from peer-reviewed publications and ordered by year, newest first, then alphabetically by title.

Reinforcement learning for conflict-free rescheduling of on-demand urban air mobility: limits imposed by separation requirements and demand concentration

SSRN preprint · 2026 · DOI 10.2139/ssrn.7288424

Urban air mobility corridor design with population exposure and social vulnerability assessment in a multiobjective framework for São Paulo

SSRN preprint · 2026 · DOI 10.2139/ssrn.7423735

Theses and dissertations

Application of Machine Learning Techniques for Soil Classification from CPTU

Master's dissertation · Instituto Tecnológico de Aeronáutica (ITA) · 2018 · Advisor: Dimas Betioli Ribeiro