From avoided emissions to potential credits: A simulation-based case study of helicopter-to-eVTOL substitution in São Paulo

Jaqueline Fonseca Rodrigues; Lucas Orbolato Carvalho; Igor Galhano Gomes; Regina Negri Pagani; Mayara Condé Rocha Murça; Samuel da Silva Caldeira; Marcelo Xavier Guterres; Daniel Alberto Pamplona

doi:10.1016/j.cstp.2026.101884

Publication

Case Studies on Transport Policy, Volume 25, Article 101884 (2026). DOI: 10.1016/j.cstp.2026.101884.

Publisher / DOI ResearchGate Author homepage

Study summary

This simulation-based case study evaluates the potential climate benefit of substituting intra-metropolitan helicopter operations with electric vertical take-off and landing aircraft in the São Paulo Metropolitan Region. An operational UAM scenario derived from Brazilian helicopter traffic records is simulated in BlueSky under different conflict-resolution regimes, and aggregate three-dimensional flight distance is converted into energy use, carbon-dioxide-equivalent emissions and potential carbon credits through transparent factors. For 146 operations with both origin and destination inside the region, full eVTOL substitution avoids 10.27 tCO2e in the selected scenario. Monte Carlo analysis produces a mean relative emissions reduction of 92.11% across sampled assumptions and identifies electricity-grid carbon intensity and helicopter fuel intensity as major uncertainty drivers. The method is intended for preliminary Monitoring, Reporting and Verification-oriented screening rather than as a certification of carbon credits.

Keywords: urban air mobility; eVTOL; helicopter; emissions accounting; carbon credits; simulation.

BibTeX

@article{Rodrigues2026EVTOLEmissions, author = {Rodrigues, Jaqueline Fonseca and Carvalho, Lucas Orbolato and Gomes, Igor Galhano and Pagani, Regina Negri and Murça, Mayara Condé Rocha and Caldeira, Samuel da Silva and Guterres, Marcelo Xavier and Pamplona, Daniel Alberto}, title = {From avoided emissions to potential credits: A simulation-based case study of helicopter-to-eVTOL substitution in São Paulo}, journal = {Case Studies on Transport Policy}, volume = {25}, pages = {101884}, year = {2026}, doi = {10.1016/j.cstp.2026.101884} }

Please cite the published journal article through its DOI.