Peer-reviewed article · Sci · 2026

Probabilistic Modeling of Critical Ground Times in Aeromedical Organ Transport: A Brazilian Air Force Case Study

Bruno Santos Luiz · Lucas Orbolato Carvalho · Daniel Alberto Pamplona

Publication

Sci, 8(7), 169 (2026). DOI: 10.3390/sci8070169.

Overview

The study develops a mission-level probabilistic framework for critical ground time in Brazilian Air Force team, tissue, and organ transport missions. It consolidates repeated organ records to avoid pseudoreplication, compares multiple candidate duration models, uses grouped likelihood for rounded observations, estimates planning percentiles with refitted parametric bootstrap uncertainty, and evaluates chronological out-of-sample performance.

Code and data availability

The public companion repository preserves the published analysis script, aggregate supplementary output tables, checksums, and the exact MDPI supplementary archive. The underlying mission-level operational records are not public because they are maintained by FAB/COMAE and subject to institutional and operational-security restrictions.

github.com/Orbolato/Aeromedical-Ground-Time-Analysis

BibTeX

@article{Luiz2026AeromedicalGroundTime, author = {Luiz, Bruno Santos and Carvalho, Lucas Orbolato and Pamplona, Daniel Alberto}, title = {Probabilistic Modeling of Critical Ground Times in Aeromedical Organ Transport: A Brazilian Air Force Case Study}, journal = {Sci}, volume = {8}, number = {7}, pages = {169}, year = {2026}, doi = {10.3390/sci8070169} }