Peer-reviewed article · Transport Policy · 2026

An optimized model-free reinforcement learning approach for tactical air traffic flow and capacity management under uncertainty

Lucas Orbolato Carvalho · Mayara Condé Rocha Murça

Publication

Transport Policy, Volume 188, Article 104380 (2026). DOI: 10.1016/j.tranpol.2026.104380.

Study summary

This study develops an application-driven model-free reinforcement-learning framework for tactical demand-capacity balancing at São Paulo/Guarulhos International Airport. The policy jointly manages runway configuration, arrival-departure capacity allocation, and miles-in-trail separation using Maskable PPO, incremental separation actions, action smoothing, and curriculum training that combines historical operations with forecast-based stochastic scenarios. The evaluation shows that forecast-based training is important for learning a non-trivial separation policy. Relative to capacity management without separation control, the approach reduces average queue-related cost while smoothing severe congestion peaks, but introduces additional spacing delay. The paper therefore treats miles-in-trail control as an operational trade-off rather than universally lower generalized cost, and finds that targeted separation at or below 10 NM is generally sufficient on the most severe days under the SBGR case assumptions.

Keywords: traffic flow management; demand-capacity balancing; machine learning; reinforcement learning; miles-in-trail; optimization.

BibTeX

@article{Carvalho2026TacticalATFM, author = {Carvalho, Lucas Orbolato and Murça, Mayara Condé Rocha}, title = {An optimized model-free reinforcement learning approach for tactical air traffic flow and capacity management under uncertainty}, journal = {Transport Policy}, volume = {188}, pages = {104380}, year = {2026}, doi = {10.1016/j.tranpol.2026.104380} }

Please cite the published journal article through its DOI.